Here are our final thoughts on the just completed earnings season for Q4 ’24. Both the EPS and revenue beat rates were very solid. Of course, earnings are, in part, a lagging indicator. They don’t necessarily tell us much about what happens next. Guidance helps with that, and the numbers aren’t very good. The six percent of companies raising guidance this quarter is the lowest percentage since the COVID period. The 12% of companies lowering guidance this quarter shows the outlook is starting to deteriorate. This is in large part due to the uncertain impact of tariffs which we discuss in the main section of this commentary.
AI companies also had solid beat rates yet many AI stocks have been in a rout. Some of the recent weakness in AI stocks is at least partially to blame on tempered expectations for growth. But if the quarter reported by Nvidia last week is any indication, growth in the AI space remains robust. Contrary to recent price action, the powerful AI theme will continue in our view. We expect AI stocks to resume their upward trend.
WAS FEBRUARY THE PAUSE THAT REFRESHES OR THE
LAST GASP OF AN AGING BULL?
The S&P 500 hit an all-time high on February 19th. Since then the market has been dismal, with the S&P 500 declining about five percent in the last eight trading days. Why did investor sentiment change so quickly? What caused the quick drawdown? The answer can be found in two words: economic uncertainty. It started with Walmart’s surprisingly dreary forecast for 2025 and then mushroomed into a series of net economic misses versus expectations for recent data releases, and a worsening rate of misses as well. The only period of higher economic policy uncertainty in the last 40 years was during the COVID shock. As a result, growth estimates for the U.S. economy have been marked down in short order. In fact, some analysts are now calling for a recession to start this year. We don’t see that happening.
We will discuss two developments that seem to partially explain the sudden surge in economic uncertainty: tariffs and federal firings.
President Trump is following through with tariffs on Canada and Mexico effective today. There will be additional tariffs on Chinese goods. Trump is also considering tariffs on the EU in addition to reciprocal tariffs on many other countries. Fears about slowing economic growth and higher inflation as a result are justified in our view, but there are also clear offsets including less business regulation (especially on banks) and an assumed extension of the 2017 tax cuts. Maybe the anticipated impact to inflation is overstated. After all, interest rates are falling, not rising as you would expect if investors feared that inflation would spike higher. As far as GDP growth is concerned, the GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed is now forecasting negative GDP growth for Q1 although there are statistical anomalies in their forecast. Suffice it to say that tariffs are scaring the market.
Job cuts. The Office of Personnel Management is guiding agencies to prepare plans for “large scale reductions in force.” For now, there isn’t a lot of evidence that fired government workers are flooding into the national labor market, but that process will take time. One way to keep an eye on it is to look at jobless claims in the most government-exposed parts of the country. Those collective jobless claims numbers have perked up but are only elevated and not near catastrophic levels for now. Will the number of job cuts cause a recession? Not likely. Keep in mind that 500,000 government job cuts (a very high estimate) is the equivalent of about three months of payroll growth.
Not every recent development has been negative. For example:
The “three-headed monster” has turned and is now a positive for stocks. Interest rates, oil prices, and the dollar are all in decline.
Although consumer sentiment has turned south, consumer balance sheets are strong and getting stronger as incomes grow faster than debt balances – despite higher interest rates.
Investor sentiment was very bearish at the recent market peak and has become more bearish since. Investors are not complacent to say the least! Individual investors have not been this bearish since the 2022 bear market trough. Remember this is a contrarian indicator.
Corporate earnings remain strong as we explained in the bullet point at the beginning of this commentary. Of course, guidance is an issue.
Volatility is part of investing in the stock market. This bull market has been remarkably calm with few drawdowns of any significance. Although the third year of a bull is normally weaker than years one and two, we expect further gains ahead. The bull market has been digesting its gains since early December. Fundamentals remain strong. Yes, we will be closely monitoring the economy but the bull remains intact.