Recent Commentary
December 2023 Market Commentary
During this holiday season, we want to thank you for your friendship and trust in us. Our best wishes to you for a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah! We follow the U.S. housing market closely because housing is such a significant part of our economy. The big...
read moreNovember 2023 Market Commentary
October was the third straight lousy month for stocks with the S&P 500 down about 3% through yesterday. Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ entered correction territory late last week. Small caps (Russell 2000) are down about 18% from their high in July and down 32% from...
read moreOctober 2023 Market Commentary
We may be in a bull market, but outside of the mega-caps in the S&P 500, it has been a flat year for the stock market. The S&P 500 is up a rosy 11.7% through September, but the median S&P 500 stock is up just 0.4% YTD. And the broader market is up less than 2% YTD. ...
read moreSeptember 2023 Market Commentary
What a difference a month makes. After a strong June and July, the S&P 500 is down about 3% this month so far with the NASDAQ 100 down about 4%. Small caps are down about 6%. So, while we may have seen a broadening of the market, unfortunately it has been to the...
read moreAugust 2023 Market Commentary
June saw a huge increase in bullish sentiment that carried through in July. It has been a complete turnaround since the continuously pessimistic readings throughout 2022. The about-face has been so large that an investor has to ask: Are we seeing an increase in...
read moreJuly 2023 Market Commentary
While the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen from 9% to 4% year-over-year, the producer price index (PPI) has been more volatile on both the upside and subsequent fall. (The CPI measures inflation to consumers or end-users. The PPI measures wholesale price...
read moreJune 2023 Market Commentary
We mentioned in our May commentary that the main theme for the next bull market could very well be Artificial Intelligence (AI). Although fundamentals and valuation metrics lead us to believe we are not yet in a new bull market, no one has told investors in AI...
read moreMay 2023 Market Commentary
Corporate earnings season for Q1 is now about halfway completed. So far, modest expectations have been exceeded. Coming in, investors expected a 6.3% drop in profits. Now a 4.2% decline is expected. Here are year-over-year earnings forecasts for the rest of 2023...
read moreApril 2023 Market Commentary
The S&P 500 had a solid month in March; up 3.5%. But not everything rallied in March. Small caps and mid-caps were down 3-5%. Only 3 of 11 equity sectors are up March YTD. And high quality stocks have been lagging all year as shown by the difference in performance...
read moreMarch 2023 Market Commentary
THE WAR AGAINST INFLATION HITS A SPEED BUMP Six weeks ago we wrote in the January mid-month commentary that the Fed was winning the war against inflation. If we look at their progress since last year’s peak inflation that is still true. But January hit a snag. ...
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