Recent Commentary

The Q4 earnings season is about halfway over and it has been mixed at best, in our view. Companies are beating EPS estimates at a normal clip, but revenue growth has been disappointing.  This can lead to both lower profit margins and slower earnings growth ahead. ...

  TURN THE PAGE:  HELLO 2024!   We will start with an executive summary of economic and market factors we think are important as we gauge the chances for another good year in stocks in 2024: DOMINANT THEMES:  Inflation, the Fed, and artificial intelligence (AI) were...

  During this holiday season, we want to thank you for your friendship and trust in us.  Our best wishes to you for a Merry Christmas and Happy Hanukkah!   We follow the U.S. housing market closely because housing is such a significant part of our economy. The big...

October was the third straight lousy month for stocks with the S&P 500 down about 3% through yesterday.  Both the S&P 500 and NASDAQ entered correction territory late last week.  Small caps (Russell 2000) are down about 18% from their high in July and down 32% from...

We may be in a bull market, but outside of the mega-caps in the S&P 500, it has been a flat year for the stock market. The S&P 500 is up a rosy 11.7% through September, but the median S&P 500 stock is up just 0.4% YTD.  And the broader market is up less than 2% YTD. ...

What a difference a month makes.   After a strong June and July, the S&P 500 is down about 3% this month so far with the NASDAQ 100 down about 4%.  Small caps are down about 6%.  So, while we may have seen a broadening of the market, unfortunately it has been to the...

June saw a huge increase in bullish sentiment that carried through in July. It has been a complete turnaround since the continuously pessimistic readings throughout 2022.  The about-face has been so large that an investor has to ask:  Are we seeing an increase in...

While the consumer price index (CPI) has fallen from 9% to 4% year-over-year, the producer price index (PPI) has been more volatile on both the upside and subsequent fall. (The CPI measures inflation to consumers or end-users.  The PPI measures wholesale price...

We mentioned in our May commentary that the main theme for the next bull market could very well be Artificial Intelligence (AI).   Although fundamentals and valuation metrics lead us to believe we are not yet in a new bull market, no one has told investors in AI...

Corporate earnings season for Q1 is now about halfway completed. So far, modest expectations have been exceeded.  Coming in, investors expected a 6.3% drop in profits.  Now a 4.2% decline is expected.  Here are year-over-year earnings forecasts for the rest of 2023...